{ "$schema": "https://fp1.ai/data/schema/register.json", "instrument": "The Register", "opened": "2026-07-27", "version": "1.0", "updated": "2026-09-05", "rules": { "pre_registration": "Thresholds are set before tracking opens and frozen inside the window.", "revision": "A threshold found to be wrong is voided in public and re-registered with a new date, never silently moved.", "one_way_dimensions": "Where a dimension can only be proven in one direction, absence of evidence is logged as unresolved, never as a weak negative reading." }, "tracked": [ { "id": "fnc1-sox-spread", "name": "FNC-1 / SOX spread", "tracks": "Whether capital moving toward the companies building the AI buildout is diverging from the chip trade.", "reading": { "value": -80.9, "unit": "points", "as_of": "2026-07-20", "basis": "weekly close" }, "threshold": "Closes to -40 points, or widens beyond -120 points", "provable_direction": "both", "opened": "2026-07-27", "grade_date": "2026-08-31", "status": "tracking", "stated_limitation": "The FNC-1 proxy basket rebases on a rolling twelve-month window, so the spread is comparable across issues only approximately.", "decision_rule": { "tripped_if": "close at or narrower than -40 points, or at or wider than -120 points", "held_if": "reading between the two lines", "held_and_watched_if": "reading within 20 points of either line", "held_and_strengthened_if": "move toward a line of more than half the remaining distance since the previous sweep, in the anticipated direction" }, "grade_record": { "grade_date": "2026-08-31", "observation": "weekly close, 31 August 2026", "methodology_version": "v0.1 code-as-run; see NCB-003 implementation note", "reading_at_grade": { "fnc1": 134.94275652750375, "sox": 203.68769559874798, "spread": -68.74493907124423 }, "verdict": "held", "publication_date": "2026-09-05", "days_late": 5, "status": "published_after_reconstruction", "reconstruction_status": "complete; weekly-explicit mode reproduced the archived July state and was applied unchanged to 31 August", "july_validation": { "fnc1_target": 128.45, "sox_target": 209.3, "passed": true, "replayed_fnc1": 128.45201323791804, "replayed_sox": 209.33711018366697 }, "known_inconsistencies": [ "NCB-003 states an annual 21 April rebase; later briefings and the Register describe a trailing twelve-month window", "NCB-003 describes weekly rebalancing; the code as run applied fixed target weights to normalized series", "Reading R-013 displays a gap of 80.9 from FNC-1 128.5 and SOX 209.3, while this file stores -80.9 against thresholds of -40 and -120" ], "threshold_reset_inside_window": false, "replay_mode": "weekly_explicit", "replay_script_sha256": "f3f85a537b7bd8b6aee2a74eeca31d327c2194e26698088003383f92f1bc28d5", "note": "Published five days late after the original production code and archived July values were recovered. The accepted weekly-explicit construction passed the predeclared July reproduction test; alternate daily constructions failed and were not used." } }, { "id": "belief-index", "name": "Belief Index", "tracks": "How strongly prediction markets price the continuation of the AI boom, on a 0-100 acceleration scale.", "reading": { "value": 49.7, "unit": "index", "as_of": "2026-07-20", "basis": "weekly close" }, "threshold": "Two consecutive weekly readings above 55, or any single reading below 40", "provable_direction": "both", "opened": "2026-07-27", "grade_date": "2026-08-31", "status": "tracking", "stated_limitation": "The panel is four prediction markets, three of which resolve on 2026-12-31; as they approach resolution their prices compress and the index carries less information.", "decision_rule": { "tripped_if": "two consecutive weekly closes above 55, or any single weekly close below 40", "held_if": "readings between 40 and 55", "near_miss": "a single close above 55 not confirmed the following week is recorded in the grade note and does not trip the threshold" }, "grade_record": { "grade_date": "2026-08-31", "observation": "Polymarket close, 21:00 UTC 31 August 2026", "methodology_version": "v0.1 historical replay", "reading_at_grade": 57.489999999999995, "verdict": "held", "publication_date": "2026-09-05", "days_late": 5, "status": "published_after_reconstruction", "reconstruction_status": "complete; six-week path reconstructed at three observation times", "path_readings_21_00_utc": [ {"date": "2026-07-27", "value": 48.745}, {"date": "2026-08-03", "value": 48.38}, {"date": "2026-08-10", "value": 49.3}, {"date": "2026-08-17", "value": 49.32}, {"date": "2026-08-24", "value": 45.315}, {"date": "2026-08-31", "value": 57.49} ], "timing_sensitivity_utc": ["14:00", "21:00", "23:59"], "timing_robust": true, "near_miss": {"date": "2026-08-31", "value": 57.49, "reason": "one close above 55; the registered trip required two consecutive weekly closes"}, "threshold_reset_inside_window": false, "replay_script_sha256": "f3f85a537b7bd8b6aee2a74eeca31d327c2194e26698088003383f92f1bc28d5", "note": "The code-as-run method selected the maximum Yes price among historically open submarkets in each registered Polymarket event. That recovered rule was used only for this historical window. Future windows pin exact contract identifiers and observation times under v0.2." } } ], "declined": [ { "name": "Biological substrate", "reason": "Rests on a single listed name carrying a fifteen percent weight. Too thin to carry a threshold: one company's idiosyncratic news would trip a dimension presented as a read on a whole substrate." }, { "name": "FNC-1 level", "reason": "Under the current rolling rebase the level is not comparable week to week, so a threshold on it could not be honestly crossed. The spread is registered instead." } ], "verdict_vocabulary": [ "held", "held_and_strengthened", "held_and_watched", "tripped", "retired" ], "grade_semantics": { "grade_date": "The date of the observation the grade is computed from. Fixed when the dimension is opened and never moved.", "publication_date": "The date the grade was published. May be later than the grade date. Lateness is recorded, never concealed.", "validity_rule": "A late grade remains valid only when the threshold, observation date, instrument composition, calculation rule, source series and any required lookback were fixed in advance or are independently recoverable from the pre-registered methodology. Publication lateness is recorded separately.", "compromise_rule": "If completing the grade requires discretionary methodological choices that were not fixed before the observation date, the window is marked compromised or ungraded rather than silently reconstructed.", "invalidating_condition": "A grade is void or compromised if the observation date or threshold moved inside the window, or if the measurement construction cannot be reproduced without post-window discretion.", "supersedes": "An earlier version of this schema said a grade was valid whenever the threshold and observation date were fixed. That was too permissive: it ignored instrument composition and calculation rule. Corrected 5 September 2026." }, "publication_record": [ { "window": "2026-07-27 to 2026-08-31", "grade_date": "2026-08-31", "publication_date": "2026-09-05", "published": true, "dimensions": [ "belief-index", "fnc1-sox-spread" ], "days_late": 5, "disposition": { "belief-index": "held; one 31 August near-miss above 55; timing-robust across three replay times", "fnc1-sox-spread": "held; weekly-explicit replay passed the July acceptance test" }, "reconstruction_status": "complete", "replay_script_sha256": "f3f85a537b7bd8b6aee2a74eeca31d327c2194e26698088003383f92f1bc28d5", "replay_output_sha256": "6ba505fbd27e1762f5df1a41a1f99a533cddaf27aec6277730cd91cf12eb6c56", "note": "Permanent. The five-day publication delay remains in the Register alongside the reconstructed results." } ] }