FP1 is a small institution working on a large problem: how to think clearly about a transition that is happening faster than its institutions can metabolize. The work has three surfaces. Weekly publication for institutional readers. A methodology track that builds research instruments in public. And commissioned analysis for organizations making consequential decisions under genuine uncertainty.
Principals
Two principals, two tracks.
FP1's two principals work in different modes on a shared problem. One leads the methodology and instrument track that produces FP1's research outputs and weekly publication. The other leads the long-form theoretical track and the correspondent framework the analytical work draws on.
David Lovejoy
Co-Founder · Methodology LeadDavid is co-founder of First Principles First and the lead author of FP1's methodology track. The Novacene Composite (FNC-1) and its Belief Index overlay, the divergence engine that pairs them, and the four-substrate framework for reading the AI transition all sit on his side of the house. NCB-003, the inaugural methodology paper, was published in April 2026.
His background spans growth-stage company building, strategic advisory, and product design across software and services ventures, with operating experience across the United States, Japan, Korea, and Canada. He holds an MBA from the University of British Columbia and a BA from the University of California, Irvine.
At FP1, David's research interests center on measurement under reflexivity: the conditions under which research instruments produce epistemic gain rather than the distortion that finance literature typically attributes to cited indices. The methodology track, the FP1 Terminal, and the State of the Transition cadence are the surfaces through which that work reaches institutional readers.
John Henry Clippinger
Co-Founder · Intellectual LeadJohn is the intellectual lead at First Principles First. His five-decade body of work spans complex self-organizing systems, decentralized governance, and the institutional design problems posed by emerging technologies.
John was a research scientist at the MIT Media Lab from 2011 through 2025, with the Human Dynamics Group and later the City Sciences Group. He founded and co-directed the Law Lab at the Harvard Berkman Center for Internet and Society, and served as a senior research fellow there from 2005 to 2009. He is a founding board member of the Active Inference Institute, whose science foundation underpins several of the analytical frameworks the FP1 correspondents work in.
His earlier work includes co-founding ID3 with Sandy Pentland at the MIT Media Lab, founding the Token Commons Foundation in Zug, Switzerland, and senior advisory roles with the World Economic Forum's Big Data Working Group, the Institute for the Future, the Santa Fe Institute, and the Aspen Institute. He holds a Ph.D. in computational linguistics and AI from the University of Pennsylvania, and is the editor of From Bitcoin to Burning Man and Beyond: The Quest for Identity and Autonomy in Digital Society.
At FP1, John drives the long-form research agenda. The Novacene Correspondent Briefings, the Transition Atlas, and the theoretical scaffolding behind State of the Transition all sit on his side of the house.