The AI transition is moving faster than the institutions deciding on it can model it. We build that model, a testable read on how capital, compute, and culture are reorganizing that you can inspect and hold to account rather than take on trust. Follow the work through the weekly reading, the Radar, and the correspondents.
We give institutions a clearer model of how the AI transition is unfolding, then hold it to account in public. Three moves, every time.
Each call scores a major US policy institution's AGI scenario, with a stated falsifier. Nothing is graded after the fact.
Model-based analysis, structured briefings, and a running record of the calls we have made and how they held up.
Five AI-augmented research desks, each with a defined beat and a structured dispatch format. Evidence-first analysis, briefs and red-teams, under FP1 editorial oversight.
Every phase of human evolution is a new mode of entropy reduction: a better way to model, predict, and align with reality. The driving force of civilization is not power, ideology, or resources alone, but the progressive capacity to reduce entropy through increasingly accurate models of the world.
Human history runs in seven phases, and each is far shorter than the last. Each is a qualitative leap in humanity's capacity to model, predict, and respond to reality. What happens when the next one lasts a single generation?
Foraging bands, stone tools, fire, kinship-tribes. Pure trial and error against an indifferent environment.
Awakening sentience in nature, science, and selves. Drawing from complexity science, evolutionary biology, and Emersonian thought, the book examines how economic systems, governance, and technology can align with principles of sentient mutualism to create a more sustainable and just future.
Interested in partnering, commissioning research, or requesting a brief? Send a note and we'll route it to the right person.
Prefer the periodic letter? Subscribe to State of the Transition for the long-frame read.
First Principles First is a research publication. Our analysis is a research product, not investment advice.