Research for the AI transition.
FP1 is a research and software company exploring how AI changes intelligence, institutions, markets, and living systems. We publish the evidence and reasoning behind our assessments so readers can challenge them.
What you can use.
Instruments
The Radar publishes dated readings. Cronkite checks claims with human review and is developing into a broader newsroom project. The Register preserves the original rule and the outcome. See the current assessment →
Method
Published rules show how the instruments work, who reviews the conclusion, and what evidence would change it. Explore the eight-step method →
Institutional work
Decision briefs apply the same method to institutional questions. The Atlas, Generations, and long-form essays explore ideas; coordinated research agents remain experimental. Discuss your question →
Who is responsible.
David Lovejoy leads methodology, instruments, and software. John Henry Clippinger leads the longer-term theoretical research. The published method and evidence must stand without relying on either biography.
David Lovejoy
David leads the design of FP1’s research methods and tools: the Radar, composite index, Belief Index, Register and Cronkite. He is lead author, with John Clippinger, of the FP1 methodology papers.
His background spans growth-stage company building, strategic advisory and product design across software and services ventures, with operating experience in the United States, Japan, Korea and Canada. His public professional profile records an MBA from the University of British Columbia.
His research asks how publishing an index changes the behaviour it measures—and when the index helps readers understand the world rather than distorting it.
John Henry Clippinger
John leads the theoretical research that informs FP1’s analysis. His five-decade body of work spans complex self-organizing systems, decentralized governance, and the institutional design problems posed by emerging technologies.
He is a former research affiliate of the MIT Media Lab's City Science group and a former fellow of Harvard's Berkman Center for Internet and Society, where he helped lead the Law Lab. He served on the Active Inference Institute's board from 2022 to 2025.
His earlier work includes natural-language research and writing, institution design, digital identity and decentralized governance. Those ideas inform FP1’s research. Its methods still need to be judged by their evidence and how they work.
How to judge our work.
First Principles First is a research and software company. Its analysis is a research product, not investment advice.