A live read on the signals FP1 is tracking across the AI transition. Each signal is positioned by maturity, weighted by risk, and tied to the briefing where it first surfaced. Updated every issue cycle.
What we're picking up, where it sits, where it's heading. The Radar is the running watchlist behind State of the Transition. Signals enter at the center as Early. They walk outward as evidence accumulates. They exit when they become consensus or get falsified.
Distance from center reads maturity. Sector reads substrate. Color reads risk. The sweep is decorative; the dots are real.
Each signal links back to the briefing where it first appeared. Hover or tap a row to highlight its position on the radar.
The Radar is the structured watchlist behind State of the Transition. Each signal is a falsifiable claim about a force shaping the AI transition. Signals enter at Early, move outward through Emerging and Maturing as evidence accumulates, and exit when they become Active consensus or get falsified outright. Public methodology, public falsification.
Early. First signal, low evidence. Speculative.
Emerging. Multiple data points, pattern recognizable. Tracked.
Maturing. Independently confirmed. Repricing in progress.
Active. Consensus formed. Moves out of Radar into Atlas.
High. Structural exposure. Failure mode hits substrate-level.
Medium. Conditional. Failure depends on path.
Low. Bounded. Measurable but not load-bearing.
Each issue, the editorial team reviews every signal: did anything happen, does the maturity stage need updating, does the risk rating need changing. Movement reads ★ new, ↑ maturing, ↓ cooling or falsified, → stable since last check.
Every signal carries an implicit falsification trigger. When a signal is falsified, it is marked, kept on the Radar for one cycle as ↓ cooling, then archived to the briefing index with a note explaining what the evidence required.