State of
the Transition.
Sixteen briefings on the money, infrastructure and people behind the AI buildout.
Browse all 16 issues ↓Final issue / 27 July 2026
Chip stocks fall despite stronger business results
Operating results improve while chip shares fall; the issue also examines memory capacity decisions and financing conditions.
Read this issue ↗Previous reading / 29 June 2026
Chip stocks lead the AI market decline
Chip shares fall faster than FP1’s basket, narrowing the gap between them as prediction markets become less optimistic about upcoming AI milestones.
Read this issue ↗The full series
These are dated readings, preserved as published.
See the current Radar →
Chip stocks fall despite stronger business results
Operating results improve while chip shares fall; the issue also examines memory capacity decisions and financing conditions.
Chip stocks lead the AI market decline
Chip shares fall faster than FP1’s basket, narrowing the gap between them as prediction markets become less optimistic about upcoming AI milestones.
Chip stocks rebound faster than the wider AI basket
The semiconductor index recovers strongly while FP1’s basket moves little and prediction markets lower the odds of an OpenAI IPO.
Inflation raises the cost of financing AI infrastructure
Higher inflation and less patient investors make long-term AI commitments more expensive to finance.
Chip stocks fall sharply; Nvidia and ASML hold up better
A semiconductor sell-off narrows the gap with FP1’s basket, with the biggest losses outside the basket’s two chip-related holdings.
The stock market rally spreads beyond chip companies
A wider stock market rally leaves FP1’s AI basket lagging the chip index; broader market gains alone do not show broader AI investment.
Long leases, slow power connections and short-lived chips
Data-centre leases can run for fifteen years, power connections take years, and the most advanced chips may be replaced much sooner.
Nvidia shares fall after record results as OpenAI files for an IPO
Nvidia’s earnings beat expectations, but its shares fell; OpenAI’s reported filing then lifted prediction-market expectations for a listing.
Can AI’s biggest customers pay for their commitments?
Cloud providers depend heavily on future payments from OpenAI and Anthropic, making those customers’ finances central to the investment case.
Power limits and growing concern about an AI bubble
Proposed limits on electricity for new data centres add to memory shortages as prediction markets assign higher odds to an AI bubble bursting.
AI spending plans rise while Nvidia shares fall
Large cloud companies raise spending plans while Nvidia shares retreat and prediction markets become less optimistic.
Tracking AI stocks and prediction markets
FP1 introduces its seven-stock basket alongside a measure of prediction-market expectations for AI.
Anthropic’s revenue lead and Snap’s AI-related job cuts
The issue examines Anthropic’s reported revenue lead, OpenAI’s funding round and Snap’s decision to cut jobs while expanding its use of AI.
AI revenue grows as debt risks and IPO demands rise
Anthropic’s revenue growth, a crowded IPO calendar and Oracle’s rising borrowing risk put AI financing under scrutiny.
How tariffs affect AI investment and IPO plans
Chip tariffs add costs and uncertainty as OpenAI and Anthropic prepare for possible public listings.
AI infrastructure spending, debt and agent platforms
The opening issue examines borrowing for AI infrastructure, competition among agent platforms and uneven regulation.