A research instrument is only as defensible as its falsification criteria. Closed methodologies require trust. Open methodologies require scrutiny, which is the harder thing to copy. This page is the home for FP1's published methodology track.
FP1 publishes the rules by which its instruments are built, the conditions under which they are revised, and the conditions under which they are retired. Defensibility comes from the willingness to be wrong in public.
If it's real, it will survive instrumentation.
A research instrument is only as defensible as its falsification criteria. Closed methodologies require trust. Open methodologies require scrutiny, which is the harder thing to copy. This page is the home for FP1's published methodology track.
FP1 maintains two distinct methodology layers. They reference each other but answer different questions, and they should be read as complementary rather than as substitutes.
In practice the layers cross. Vera grades evidence about index movements. Manticus reads the Markov blanket of capital and belief. The instruments measure the world; the correspondents reason about what the measurements mean.
The first formal methodology paper in the FP1 track. Constituent architecture, weighting schemes, falsification thresholds, and the prediction-market overlay that pairs with the equity composite.
The FP1 Novacene Composite is a publishable index that tracks the capital and infrastructure commitments most plausibly associated with a transition from the Anthropocene to what Lovelock called the Novacene. It is explicitly not a return-seeking benchmark. It is a measurement instrument, paired with a prediction-market belief overlay drawn from Kalshi, Polymarket, and Manifold. The interesting data is the divergence between the two.
Read NCB-003No single layer dominates. The thesis is that a genuine Novacene transition requires coordinated movement across compute, energy, frontier intelligence, and biological convergence. Divergence between layers is itself signal.
FNC-1 is equal-weighted within layer with a 15% per-name cap. FNC-1M uses modified market-cap within layer with the same cap. Both are published in parallel so readers can see how much of any move is megacap concentration versus genuine breadth. Quarterly rebalancing, annual constituent review.
Falsification criteria are stated up front so the reader knows what would force a revision. If none of these trigger, the framework is doing work. If any of them triggers, the methodology is restructured in public.
Every measurement instrument has a blind spot. FP1 names them rather than hides them.
The methodology track will grow. Each instrument that joins the FP1 stack will be documented here with the same conventions: open construction, named falsification criteria, stated limitations.
Methodology is iterative. These are questions FP1 is actively working through, named openly to invite scrutiny from institutional readers, methodologists, and other thought partners.