Bloomberg gave the industrial age a price feed and a workflow built around prices. The Novacene needs both, structured around the substrates that actually drive it: compute, energy, frontier intelligence, and biological convergence.
FNC-1 tracks what is being built.
The Belief Index tracks what is being believed.
The divergence is the read.
Existing market intelligence tools were built for the Anthropocene economy. AI thematic indices measure exposure. Prediction markets measure belief. No tool reads them together. The FP1 Terminal is a decision intelligence layer that closes that gap, structured around the four substrates of the AI transition.
The Terminal is not the equity composite in isolation, and not the prediction markets in isolation. It is the structured juxtaposition of both, plus the analytical work of reading the gap between them.
The transition has four plausible substrate layers. Each is necessary. None is sufficient. A genuine Novacene transition requires coordinated movement across all four, and divergence between layers is itself signal. FNC-1 is decomposed accordingly so readers can see which layer is moving and which is lagging.
Weighting target. Two schemes published in parallel: equal-within-layer (FNC-1) and modified market-cap (FNC-1M), each with a 15% per-name cap.
FNC-1 alone competes with MSCI thematic baskets and AI ETFs. The Belief Index alone is a research curiosity. Read together, calibrated by substrate, with falsification criteria published openly, they do something neither does alone: they make the disagreement between capital and crowd visible, and assign it to a layer.
Each week's State of the Transition includes a Capital + Belief panel: the equity composite reading, the belief composite reading, and a one-paragraph divergence interpretation. When the two converge, the signal is strong. When they diverge, the divergence itself is the most important signal.
Two interpretations: capital has not caught up with the evidence (an opportunity), or the crowd is wrong (a fade). The analytical work is naming which.
Historically where both regime shifts and bubbles originate. Reading the divergence requires substrate decomposition: which layer is moving without belief support?
The Terminal's defensibility comes from the willingness to be wrong in public. Constituent selection, weighting rules, rebalancing logic, and falsification thresholds are all published. The index restructures itself in public when its own assumptions break.
Methodology and architecture are published. The live calculated index is in development. The weekly read is already being delivered through State of the Transition.
The methodology paper sits alongside the weekly read and the analytical stack. Three entry points.