FP1 Terminal

Capital and belief markets for the Novacene.

A decision intelligence layer for the AI transition, structured around the four substrates that actually drive it: compute, energy, frontier intelligence, and biological convergence. FNC-1 reads what is being built. The Belief Index reads what is being believed. The divergence between them is the read.

FNC-1 tracks what is being built.
The Belief Index tracks what is being believed.
The divergence is the read.

Methodology v0.2 · Live index in development

Existing market intelligence tools were built for the Anthropocene economy. AI thematic indices measure exposure. Prediction markets measure belief. No tool reads them together. The FP1 Terminal is a decision intelligence layer that closes that gap, structured around the four substrates of the AI transition. The Bloomberg Terminal gave the industrial age a price feed and a workflow built around prices; the Novacene needs an instrument structured around its own substrates rather than its prices, and the Terminal is FP1's attempt at one.

Architecture

Three readings, one instrument.

The Terminal is not the equity composite in isolation, and not the prediction markets in isolation. It is the structured juxtaposition of both, plus the analytical work of reading the gap between them.

Capital
FNC-1
What is being built?
A proprietary equity composite weighted across the four Novacene substrates. Tracks the capital deployment side of the transition: who is buying chips, who is signing nuclear PPAs, who is acquiring frontier teams, who is wiring AI into biology. Published in two parallel weightings to expose how much of any move is megacap concentration versus genuine breadth.
Belief
Belief Index
What is being believed?
A normalized acceleration score drawn from a curated panel of standing markets across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Manifold. Tagged to AI timelines, compute scaling, capability milestones, and governance events. The crowd's price on the future, expressed as a single weekly number plus a layered breakdown.
Read
Divergence
Where do they disagree?
Capital tells you what is being built. Belief tells you what is being believed. Where the two diverge is where regime shifts and bubbles both originate. Distinguishing one from the other is the analytical work institutional readers need done. The divergence read is published weekly as part of State of the Transition.
Substrate Decomposition

Four layers. None sufficient. All required.

The transition has four plausible substrate layers. Each is necessary. None is sufficient. A genuine Novacene transition requires coordinated movement across all four, and divergence between layers is itself signal. FNC-1 is decomposed accordingly so readers can see which layer is moving and which is lagging.

Layer 1
Compute
Semiconductors, fab equipment, memory, networking. The physical substrate.
30%
Layer 2
Energy
Nuclear, grid, data center power. The thermodynamic precondition.
20%
Layer 3
Frontier
Hyperscalers and firms with direct frontier model exposure.
35%
Layer 4
Biological
AI-enabled drug discovery, synthetic biology, protein design.
15%

Weighting target. Two schemes published in parallel: equal-within-layer (FNC-1) and modified market-cap (FNC-1M), each with a 15% per-name cap.

The Read

The product is the gap, not the indices.

FNC-1 alone competes with MSCI thematic baskets and AI ETFs. The Belief Index alone is a research curiosity. Read together, calibrated by substrate, with falsification criteria published openly, they do something neither does alone: they make the disagreement between capital and crowd visible, and assign it to a layer.

Capital signal

FNC-1 / FNC-1M
28 public-equity constituents, four substrates, quarterly rebalance, annual review, 15% per-name cap

Belief signal

Belief Index
15 to 25 standing markets across Kalshi, Polymarket, Manifold, normalized to a 0 to 100 acceleration score
What we publish

Each week's State of the Transition includes a Capital + Belief panel: the equity composite reading, the belief composite reading, and a one-paragraph divergence interpretation. When the two converge, the signal is strong. When they diverge, the divergence itself is the most important signal.

When belief leads capital

Crowd prices acceleration that capital has not yet funded.

Two interpretations: capital has not caught up with the evidence (an opportunity), or the crowd is wrong (a fade). The analytical work is naming which.

When capital leads belief

Capital deploys into a thesis the crowd has not yet endorsed.

Historically where both regime shifts and bubbles originate. Reading the divergence requires substrate decomposition: which layer is moving without belief support?

Discipline

Open methodology, public falsification.

The Terminal's defensibility comes from the willingness to be wrong in public. Constituent selection, weighting rules, rebalancing logic, and falsification thresholds are all published. The index restructures itself in public when its own assumptions break.

Methodology
Full FNC-1 methodology will be published as NCB-003. Constituent list, weighting schemes, rebalancing cadence, and falsification criteria are stated openly.
Falsification
The index is abandoned or restructured if (1) correlation with the semiconductor index exceeds 0.95 over any 12-month window, (2) layer correlations decouple structurally for 18+ months, (3) the biological layer registers no signal for 24+ months, or (4) the prediction market overlay shows zero predictive relationship at any lag up to 12 months.
Limitations
Public market bias is real and named. Major frontier labs (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI) are not yet investable. China is structurally excluded. Reflexivity risk grows with citation. Each is documented rather than hidden.
Read alongside
Vera grades evidence for index claims. Manticus reads the Markov blanket of capital and belief. Darśan names the precedent. The correspondents are the editorial layer over the data.
Status · April 2026

Where the Terminal is today.

Methodology and architecture are published. The live calculated index is in development. The weekly read is already being delivered through State of the Transition.

FNC-1 Methodology
PUBLISHED   v0.1, published as NCB-003 in April 2026.
FNC-1 Live Index
IN DEVELOPMENT   Weekly proxy basket reading published in State of the Transition. Backtested historical series and live-calculated daily values targeted for Q3 2026.
Belief Index
IN DEVELOPMENT   Standing market panel under construction. Inaugural single-market reading appears in this week's briefing.
Divergence Read
LIVE   Published weekly as the Capital + Belief panel in State of the Transition.
Commissioned Work
AVAILABLE   Custom analysis, bespoke index construction, and deep-dive briefings through the correspondent stack.
Read further

The Terminal in practice.

The methodology paper sits alongside the weekly read and the analytical stack. Three entry points.

Methodology
FNC-1 construction, falsification, and open questions
The full methodology page covers constituent selection, weighting schemes, rebalancing logic, and the conditions under which the index is to be revised or retired.
Weekly read
State of the Transition
The Capital + Belief panel appears each Monday. The full briefing also includes Vera, Manticus, and Darśan dispatches calibrated to the week's signal.
Analytical stack
Novacene Correspondents
The science behind the editorial layer. Markov blankets, Bayesian inference, active inference, and phase transition theory applied to the AI transition.
Worked example
Novacene Correspondent Briefings
Single-question deep dives where the correspondents apply the full stack to a specific decision. Commissioned and standing briefings live alongside the State of the Transition cadence.

Read the divergence each week.

State of the Transition is a free weekly briefing that opens with the Capital + Belief panel and closes with three correspondent dispatches. Subscribe to receive each issue by email.

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